The ongoing stalemate between Russia and Ukraine has disrupted global trade and supply chain operations, pushed up energy and commodity market prices, and increased global inflation pressure. It is not surprising that the growth rate has soared to 3%. He predicts that the era of low prices will not return, and everyone must be mentally prepared.

The Taiwan Economic Research Institute released the latest economic trend survey today (25th), and the business climate test points of the manufacturing, service and construction industries all declined in February. Sun Mingde, director of the Economic Prediction Center of the Taiwan Academy of Economics, pointed out that the future economic development will not be separated from seven words: "Russia, Ukraine, the epidemic, the Federal Reserve", and my country's high prices are mainly affected by import prices, but if wages can rise more than inflation Don't worry too much, it can also reduce the suffering of the people.

However, Zhang Jianyi reminded that the problem of high prices is "a little troublesome now", because the price increase this time is not only caused by the demand side, but also the supply side, and it is not simply caused by the monetary easing policy. It is also expected that the inflationary pressure in Taiwan will be relatively high in the next few months, and the annual growth rate of CPI may reach 2.5%.

Zhang Jianyi pointed out that the war between Russia and Ukraine at the end of February had a great impact on prices in March, including oil prices and food. Therefore, it is surprising that the central bank raised interest rates by 1 yard a few days ago, and raising interest rates is good for some groups and bad for another group. However, inflation is not good for anyone, so it must be dealt with.

As for when will the CPI annual growth rate have a chance to come down? Zhang Jianyi believes that the third quarter is the key. The Taiwan Academy of Economics previously estimated that if the war between Russia and Ukraine continues for two months, the impact on my country's overall economic growth rate will be about 0.1 percentage points, but if it reaches half a year, the impact will expand to 0.2~ 0.3 percent. However, what is more troublesome now is the impact and impact from prices, and the Russian-Ukrainian war has been going on for more than a month.

Zhang Jianyi said more bluntly, because of globalization and the US-China trade war, "low prices cannot go back", and now there are port congestion and shortage of cabinets caused by the epidemic, it is impossible to return to the low price level of the past 30 years "Everyone must be mentally prepared."

The Taiwan Economic Research Institute also analyzed the reasons for the decline in the business climate test points of the manufacturing, service and construction industries in February. The Taiwan Economic Research Institute pointed out that the manufacturing orders and production performance in February showed a decline compared with January, which made the manufacturing manufacturers feel more optimistic about the prosperity of the month. The performance view has deteriorated, but the outlook for the economic performance in the next six months is still optimistic.

The service industry is affected by the fact that the peak of people's livelihood consumption has passed, which makes the retail and catering industry more conservative on the economic situation in February. In addition, the war between Russia and Ukraine, the expectation of interest rate hikes and inflationary pressures have led to intensified financial market turmoil, making most financial industry people look bad. Prosperity performance. However, looking ahead, the financial industry is optimistic about the economic performance of the next six months as the US has started a cycle of interest rate hikes and the interest rate spread at home and abroad is expected to widen.

In the construction industry, the decline in the test point in February was mainly due to the worsening views of the real estate industry and construction industry on the current month's prosperity. As for the housing market climate in the next six months, it will tend to be cautious, because the timing and magnitude of the central bank's interest rate hike are higher than the original market expectations. This further affects the psychological level of shoppers, coupled with the lack of room for loosening policies, and the widening gap in price perceptions between buyers and sellers.