TIER Survey: Manufacturing Sentiment Rises for Third Consecutive Month in September
The Taiwan Institute of Economic Research (TIER) released the latest results of its business climate survey for the three major industries on the 23rd. In the manufacturing sector, the proportion of firms pessimistic about the economic outlook for both the current month and the next six months decreased. This pushed the September manufacturing business climate indicator up by 2.52 points month-on-month to 91.65 points, marking the third consecutive month of an upward trend.
TIER pointed out that driven by growing stocking demand for new consumer electronics and sustained momentum from AI business opportunities, the export performance of electronics and ICT products in September remained strong. This led to a significant reduction in manufacturers' pessimism about the current month and the next six months compared to the previous survey.
According to TIER's September manufacturing survey results, the percentage of firms viewing the current (September) business climate as "good" was 22.0%, down 1.9 percentage points from 23.9% in August. The percentage viewing it as "bad" was 25.1%, a significant drop of 8.2 percentage points from 33.3% in August. Regarding the outlook for the next six months, optimistic firms increased by 0.7 percentage points from 18.6% in August to 19.3% in the current month. The share of pessimistic firms decreased by 4.0 percentage points from 33.6% in August to 29.6%.
TIER's Economic Forecasting Center's detailed observation of traditional industries found that in the metal products sector, although geopolitical risks and U.S. tariff policies have resulted in a conservative global economic outlook and impacted recovery in European, American, and Chinese markets, demand from emerging applications like AI equipment, aerospace, and electric vehicles remained stable. Consequently, nearly 60% of metal products firms viewed the current month's business as "neutral." As for the chemical industry, despite a slight increase in international oil prices, weak end-market demand caused most petrochemical prices to fall compared to August. However, some companies completed maintenance and resumed production, boosting production and sales volumes.
However, TIER cautioned that fluctuating U.S.-China relations (sometimes easing, sometimes tense), the unclear outlook of the trade war, and the lack of concrete progress in Taiwan-U.S. tariff negotiations are keeping manufacturers relatively conservative about the economic outlook.
As for the service sector, although the strong Taiwan stock market boosted optimism in financial-related industries for the current month, the impact of the Ghost Month (民俗月) caused a significant decline in demand for durable goods like automobiles, home furnishings, and appliances. Furthermore, with the summer peak season over and the travel boom cooling, the retail and food & beverage industries were largely pessimistic about the month's performance. As a result, the service sector business climate indicator for September fell by 2.88 points month-on-month to 85.23 points.
In the construction industry, the September business climate indicator was 97.35 points, an increase of 0.80 points from 96.55 in August, which can be regarded as largely flat.
