The Taiwan Economic Research Institute released a February business trend survey today (25th). Sun Mingde, director of the Economic Forecast Center of the Taiwan Economic Research Institute, pointed out that investment enthusiasm in Taiwan has not diminished, and high unit price server orders are still in hand. However, it should be noted that "AI parity is now in progress, not in the future." Taiwan's technology industry must pay special attention to the trend changes after high-end server parity, seize business opportunities, and do not only focus on the supply of a few large manufacturers, so as not to follow the footsteps of IBM and Intel.
According to the National Taiwan Institute of Economics' model calculation, the business climate test points of the manufacturing and service industries have turned downward, and the construction industry has turned upward. The business climate test point of the manufacturing industry in February this year was 97.94 points, a decrease of 0.01 points from January. Due to the slight decrease, the manufacturing industry's outlook on the business climate remained unchanged compared with the previous month; the service industry test point was 93.28 points, a decrease of 2.48 points from January, falling for two consecutive months; although the construction industry turned to an upward trend again, it only rose 0.48 points, with limited movement, and the outlook on the business climate remained unchanged.
Taiwan's trade performance showed that exports maintained a high growth rate of about 17% from January to February, which is still strong. If compared with the international market (South Korea, Japan, China, Singapore, and Germany), the growth rate was 16%. This is mainly due to Taiwan's special industrial structure. Electronics and information products accounted for 70% of Taiwan's exports, and the other nine categories accounted for the remaining 30%. Their performance was sluggish.
Especially this year, the highlight of Taiwan's economy is investment. Although the economic growth rate of the central bank or the General Accounting Office has been revised downward, investment is still impressive. From January to February, imported capital equipment grew by 54.7%, and semiconductor capital equipment imports grew by 120%.
However, Sun Mingde also reminded that we need to be careful about the parity of AI servers. Previously, we should have invested in high-priced AI servers. Next, there will be new models that can be achieved using older chips, so high-priced servers in Europe and the United States will be challenged.
Sun Mingde said that with the Trump administration, the U.S. economy has experienced headwinds, which will affect the Federal Reserve's monetary policy in the future, which is worthy of attention. However, in terms of Taiwan's economic strengths, investment enthusiasm has not diminished, and high unit price server orders are still on hand. However, when high-end products become affordable, such as in 1980, when IBM large computers could not be sold and became PC products, whether Taiwanese manufacturers can seize the business opportunities is the focus of everyone's attention.
Sun Mingde further cited the United States as an example. In the past 40 years, two large manufacturers have collapsed. The first was IBM because it only focused on large computers and did not pay attention to the development of PC trends. In today's world, every computer uses a processor, but because computer processors don't have to pay much attention to efficiency, when mobile devices became popular in 2010, Intel couldn't keep up with this era and continued to make PC processors. As a result, the market was taken away by Qualcomm and Huida.
It can be seen from the two examples that many large companies in the United States often focus on expensive and large projects, and only focus on a certain project without paying attention to market differentiation. "There seems to be such a trend in AI now," Sun Mingde said. The United States attaches great importance to development, but does not pay attention to the application end. In comparison, mainland China has done a better job of integrating virtual and real applications of AI for robots and drones. In order to break through the control, low-end and cheap servers are used for applications. AI will become affordable this year.
Sun Mingde believes that although Europe and the United States will not immediately change capital expenditures for Taiwanese factories, every large company in the United States has downloaded Deek Seek to transform its own model. In the future, if more startups and small and medium-sized companies use it, the more popular and cheaper it is, the more applications it will naturally have.
However, Sun also emphasized that "AI parity" is not necessarily a warning for Taiwanese manufacturers. Just like the US Wangan Computer in 1980, Taiwan's Shentong Acer grabbed a lot of cheap computer orders, creating Taiwan's computer world. In 2010, when Intel was still obsessed with computer processors and had not transformed into mobile device processors, Taiwan also kept up with the wave of processor boom after Qualcomm. Therefore, Taiwanese manufacturers do not have to worry too much about what will happen if parity occurs. On the contrary, if they stubbornly follow big customers like IBM, they will not notice this trend.
"AI parity is ongoing now, not in the future." He reminded that when manufacturers in the technology industry achieve parity, it may bring more business opportunities to Taiwanese manufacturers, so don't just focus on the supply of a few individual companies. "Treat this manufacturer like a god every day." The gods of the past will also step down from the altar.
The media asked whether Taiwan has been listed as one of the Dirty 15 countries. Have you taken stock of which industries will have the greatest impact?
Zhang Jianyi, president of the Taiwan Academy of Economics, said that Trump did not make it clear whether the policies such as reciprocal tariffs announced in early April were based on reciprocal tariffs, trade surplus or trade volume. If we look at reciprocal tariffs, Taiwan's weighted average tax rate is lower than that of the United States. In terms of simple tariffs, Taiwan is a bit higher than the United States. However, if Taiwan is included, the automotive industry and agricultural products may have a greater impact.
Regarding the automobile industry, Zhang Jianyi said that each country has different tariffs on automobiles. Taiwan's tariff on imported cars is 17.5%, which was the number negotiated with other countries when Taiwan joined the WTO. However, Taiwan's automobile exports to the United States are very small and almost none. However, Taiwan exports more automobile parts, especially non-original components. At the same time, import tariffs related to automobiles in the United States are high. For example, the tariff on imported automobiles in the United States is 2.5%, which is quite different from Taiwan's 17.5%.
However, in addition to tariffs, Zhang Jianyi also pointed out that Taiwan also has excise taxes, business taxes, etc. After multiplying the cumulative prices, an imported car worth NT$1 million will be sold in Taiwan for at least NT$1.5 million. This requires communication from the Ministry of Finance, which is currently taking stock of products with high tariffs on the United States. In addition, we must also consider whether Taiwan's auto tariffs on other countries will also need to be adjusted simultaneously if the United States really requires Taiwan to reduce auto tariffs.
Regarding agricultural products, Zhang Jianyi said that Taiwan is open to US pigs and cattle, and the tariffs are probably more than 10%. However, Taiwanese people still prefer to eat Taiwanese pork. If Taiwan labels US pork on processed pork products, will this be called a non-tariff trade war by Trump? We need to pay attention in the future.
