The Taiwan Institute of Economic Research conducted a survey of manufacturers, and after model calculations, the business climate index for the manufacturing industry in November 2024 ended its previous five-month decline and turned upward. The business climate indices for the service and construction industries continued to rise, with the three major industries showing a simultaneous improvement in their outlook on the economy, regaining the optimism seen in the first half of the year.
On the 25th, the Taiwan Institute of Economic Research released its December economic trend survey report, detailing the views of manufacturers in the manufacturing, service, and construction industries on the economy in November. According to Chang Chien-Yi, President of the Taiwan Institute of Economic Research, the global economy continues to grow moderately, with manufacturing in China and ASEAN generally rebounding. Exports in November, including traditional industries, also increased. As a result, the business climate index for the manufacturing industry rose in November. However, whether this is a short-term phenomenon or a rebound from the bottom remains to be observed for another one or two months.
The Economic Forecast Center of the Taiwan Institute of Economic Research analyzed that in November, exports of "standard" traditional industries such as petrochemicals improved, and niche traditional industries such as heavy electrical and organic textiles performed even better. The proportion of manufacturers with a positive outlook on the economy for the month increased compared to the previous month, while those with a negative outlook decreased. However, the outlook for the next six months showed a decrease in optimism and an increase in pessimism, as global political and economic uncertainties rise with Trump's upcoming inauguration. Therefore, some manufacturers' outlook on the economy for the next six months slightly worsened compared to the previous month's survey. After model calculations by the Taiwan Institute of Economic Research, the business climate index for the manufacturing industry in November 2024 was 95.20 points, an increase of 1.77 points from the revised 93.43 points in the previous month, ending the previous five-month decline and turning upward.
In the service sector, the Taiwan Institute of Economic Research pointed out that the Double 11 shopping festival, department store anniversary promotions, and major sports events significantly boosted retail and dining sales. Additionally, the depreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar against the US Dollar and the growth in insurance demand drove steady increases in premium income, contributing to a more favorable outlook for the retail and insurance industries in November. The business climate index for the service industry in November was 93.11 points, an increase of 1.19 points from the revised 91.92 points in the previous month, showing a continuous upward trend for the second consecutive month.
In the construction industry, Liu Pei-Chen, Director of the Industrial Economics Database at the Taiwan Institute of Economic Research, noted that the business climate index continued to rise in November. The construction industry benefited from the smooth implementation of government public works projects and the year-end rush to complete projects. Additionally, the 2025 public construction budget is expected to exceed that of 2024, and the demand for factory construction and green environmental projects from high-tech companies is increasing, which is expected to drive continued economic growth. The business climate index for the construction industry in November was 104.75 points, an increase of 1.03 points from 103.72 points in October, showing an upward trend for the second consecutive month.
