The Taiwan Economic Research Institute released a business trend survey today (9/25). Due to the overall decline in the three major business climate test points, especially the manufacturing industry, which has shown a downward trend for three consecutive months, President Zhang Jianyi emphasized that in August manufacturers were slightly pessimistic about the next six months. , but the data is mixed. Judging from the latest export orders, the continued increase in AI applications will also drive transmission of industry. In addition, the U.S. interest rate cut has led to a global wave of interest rate cuts, which is also good for industry transmission. "It's not that spring will not come, it's just too late." a little".
The National Taiwan Institute of Economics today held a press conference on the survey report on economic trends in September, which was chaired by President Zhang Jianyi. Sun Mingde, director of the Economic Forecast Center, Wu Mengdao, director of the Sixth Research Institute, and Liu Peizhen, director of the Industrial and Economic Database, respectively explained. The business climate test point of the manufacturing industry in August was 96.65 points, down 2.30 points, showing a downward trend for three consecutive months; while the business climate test points of the service industry and construction industry were 97.88 points and 107.36 points respectively, both showing declines for two consecutive months. decline.
Zhang Jianyi explained that just looking at one month's performance is not accurate, and the data can be good or bad. The latest export orders released by the Ministry of Economic Affairs have grown well, about 5 to 6 percentage points, especially the increase in the transmission part, mainly due to the low base period last year. Coupled with the continued growth of applications such as mobile phones, PCs and AI, it is likely to drive the development of traditional industry
Regarding the impact of AI business opportunities on traditional production, Sun Mingde added that the scale of servers is about more than 20 billion US dollars. With the application of mobile phones, PCs and AI, the market size has expanded to 30 billion to 50 billion US dollars, and AI technology is selling well. , PCB and other related industries will drive the transfer of production, including plastics, protective stickers, glass, protective cases, etc., and consumers are more willing to buy products because the opportunity cost has become lower.
At the same time, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) initiated interest rate cuts, leading to a global wave of interest rate cuts. Sun Mingde pointed out that after the United States cut interest rates by 2%, the Eurozone, China, Indonesia and the Philippines in Southeast Asia also followed suit. After all, interest rates are too high, which puts greater pressure on the industry. The domestic steel industry has high interest rates, which makes downstream manufacturers reluctant to invest. Or consumption, resulting in insufficient demand. After the current interest rate cut, manufacturers are optimistic about consumption and investment, which will be more helpful to performance next and next year and drive global economic recovery.
As for the performance of the technology industry, Zhang Jianyi believes that AI technology is currently the mainstream, dominating more than 90% of the chip market. No matter how the chip market changes, it will be beneficial to TSMC. On the other hand, Intel and Qualcomm want to expand into the PC market, but Success or failure is still uncertain, so TSMC's long-term prospects are still promising. There may be fluctuations in the short term, but it is profitable in the long term.
Zhang Jianyi emphasized that AI technology is the key, especially in domestic manufacturing and related industries. Silicon photonics technology is of great help to industrial development and is expected to drive up the transmission of industries. China’s future economy will have good prospects for at least ten years. Pay attention to the impact of international economic development on our country.
